Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Smith 46.1% (+11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 50.6%
Defensive zone
Smith 51.3%
Neutral zone
Smith 50.4%
Result
Trevor Smith favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Pavelski
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Pavelski
Smith
Last 5: Pavelski 2-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Pavelski
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Pavelski
Smith
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Smith
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
44.7% (244)
+11.0%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
33.3% (6)
+26.7%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
50.0% (8)
+2.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. Smith is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Smith
Home
59.2% (622)
51.3% (158)
Away
52.6% (584)
34.0% (100)
By Period
Pavelski
Smith
P1
54.1%
37.2%
P2
56.4%
53.9%
P3
56.4%
40.8%
OT
65.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 09:59 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 09:47 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 07:26 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 03:34 | Offensive | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |