Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Smith 48.7% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 63.1%
Defensive zone
Smith 85.7%
Neutral zone
Smith 70.8%
Result
Trevor Smith favored at 73.6%
26.4%
73.6%
Pavelski
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Pavelski
Smith
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Smith
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
4
Pavelski
Smith
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Pavelski
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
49.0% (769)
+4.6%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
63.6% (22)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
42.4% (118)
+8.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Smith is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (370).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Smith
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.4% (490)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
44.0% (420)
By Period
Pavelski
Smith
P1
53.5%
46.9%
P2
55.2%
51.2%
P3
53.9%
47.7%
OT
52.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2015 | 2 | 15:53 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 1 | 17:51 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 1 | 04:15 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 1 | 02:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 1 | 00:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 15, 2015 | 2 | 10:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 09:59 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 09:47 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 07:26 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 03:34 | Offensive | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |