Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Brouwer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Brouwer 50.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 85.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 84.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 83.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Pavelski
Brouwer
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Pavelski
Brouwer
Last 6: Pavelski 5-1 Brouwer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Brouwer
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Brouwer
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Brouwer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Brouwer
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
50.3% (702)
+3.3%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
53.7% (551)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
46.6% (412)
+4.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brouwer shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Brouwer is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (462).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Brouwer
Home
56.4% (5,998)
53.5% (854)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
47.3% (811)
By Period
Pavelski
Brouwer
P1
53.5%
51.4%
P2
55.2%
49.3%
P3
53.9%
51.2%
OT
52.3%
43.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Brouwer
38.0%▼
46.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2018 | 2 | 17:26 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 28, 2017 | 3 | 02:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 3 | 06:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 14, 2014 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2012 | 2 | 14:45 | Defensive | Troy Brouwer |
| Feb 13, 2012 | 1 | 15:01 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |