Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Bozak 46.2% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 83.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 53.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 65.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 77.3%
77.3%
22.7%
Pavelski
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Pavelski
Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Bozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
Pavelski
Bozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
46.7% (338)
+5.8%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
50.0% (6)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
32.6% (43)
+11.8%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Pavelski is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Pavelski shoots right. Bozak is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Bozak
Home
55.0% (391)
47.9% (194)
Away
49.7% (360)
42.5% (193)
By Period
Pavelski
Bozak
P1
50.8%
40.2%
P2
55.0%
51.4%
P3
52.0%
43.1%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 15:37 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 14:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |