Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.5% vs 52.1%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Smith 51.8% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 77.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 60.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 70.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
Pavelski
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
5
(17 meetings)
12
5
Pavelski
Smith
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
1
Pavelski
Smith
9 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Smith
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Smith
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (643)
53.5% (430)
-2.2%
Power Play
58.1% (172)
47.7% (65)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (41)
49.1% (114)
-2.8%
On power play, Pavelski has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Pavelski is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Pavelski shoots right. Smith is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (245).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Smith
Home
53.8% (431)
54.0% (298)
Away
51.1% (425)
50.2% (311)
By Period
Pavelski
Smith
P1
48.4%
55.4%
P2
52.0%
45.9%
P3
55.6%
54.6%
OT
80.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2016 | OT | 04:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 3 | 16:14 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 3 | 11:49 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 3 | 02:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 2 | 02:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 2 | 02:05 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 1 | 14:07 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 1 | 00:41 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 1 | 00:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2016 | 3 | 15:34 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 7, 2016 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2016 | 3 | 12:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2016 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2016 | 2 | 14:33 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2016 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2016 | 2 | 04:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |