Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 19 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Smith 50.6% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 26-14 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 94.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 80.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 87.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 88.8%
88.8%
11.2%
Pavelski
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
14
(40 meetings)
26
14
Pavelski
Smith
Last 10: Pavelski 8-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
15
4
Pavelski
Smith
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
4
Pavelski
Smith
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
3
6
Pavelski
Smith
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
51.6% (5,265)
+2.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
51.2% (342)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
45.3% (985)
+5.6%
On power play, Pavelski has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Smith is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,394).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Smith
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
Pavelski
Smith
P1
53.5%
49.9%
P2
55.2%
50.0%
P3
53.9%
51.9%
OT
52.3%
51.6%
Final 5 min
54.4%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 07:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 1 | 13:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 18:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 07:30 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2018 | 3 | 07:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2018 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 5, 2018 | 3 | 00:26 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 5, 2018 | 1 | 12:56 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 5, 2018 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 14, 2016 | OT | 04:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 3 | 19:06 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 3 | 16:14 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 3 | 11:49 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 3 | 02:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |