Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Smith 49.2% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 93.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 68.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 74.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Pavelski
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Pavelski
Smith
Last 10: Pavelski 8-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Smith
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Smith
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Pavelski
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
50.9% (666)
+3.1%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
70.0% (10)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
39.6% (144)
+2.1%
On power play, Smith has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Pavelski shoots right. Smith is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Smith
Home
55.2% (458)
50.9% (405)
Away
51.4% (531)
47.5% (415)
By Period
Pavelski
Smith
P1
54.0%
47.1%
P2
54.5%
49.6%
P3
50.5%
50.4%
OT
60.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 07:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 1 | 13:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 18:29 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 07:30 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |