Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.5% vs Thornton 52.6% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 83.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 74.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 75.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
McDavid
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
McDavid
Thornton
Last 7: McDavid 1-6 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
2
McDavid
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
3
McDavid
Thornton
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Thornton
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (578)
51.8% (577)
-11.1%
Power Play
56.3% (16)
57.7% (168)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
37.5% (8)
+12.5%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. McDavid is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (363).
McDavid shoots left. Thornton is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thornton
Home
42.7% (323)
53.0% (379)
Away
39.5% (281)
52.9% (374)
By Period
McDavid
Thornton
P1
42.3%
53.3%
P2
37.3%
50.7%
P3
43.4%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
36.8%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.2%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2016 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 24, 2016 | 1 | 17:20 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 3 | 07:21 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 3 | 00:27 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 1 | 14:58 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |