Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.0% vs Thornton 52.4% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 64.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 64.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 67.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
McDavid
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
McDavid
Thornton
Last 6: McDavid 1-5 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Thornton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
4
McDavid
Thornton
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (862)
52.5% (638)
-5.6%
Power Play
42.1% (38)
57.1% (35)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
50.0% (2)
-5.6%
On power play, Thornton has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. McDavid is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (588).
McDavid shoots left. Thornton is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
McDavid
Thornton
Home
47.9% (478)
54.8% (341)
Away
45.2% (440)
50.6% (334)
By Period
McDavid
Thornton
P1
45.9%
55.2%
P2
47.7%
56.5%
P3
46.6%
47.1%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2019 | 3 | 09:26 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 2 | 18:48 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 9, 2019 | 1 | 10:39 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 2 | 18:04 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2018 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |