Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 46.2% vs Thornton 57.4% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 55.7%
Defensive zone
Roy 62.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 59.5%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 59.8%
59.8%
40.2%
Roy
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Roy
Thornton
Last 6: Roy 2-4 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
2
Roy
Thornton
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
1
Roy
Thornton
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (506)
57.0% (540)
-11.7%
Power Play
57.4% (68)
64.0% (111)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (73)
62.0% (50)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Roy is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Roy shoots left. Thornton is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Home / Away
Roy
Thornton
Home
44.9% (354)
56.7% (353)
Away
46.4% (293)
60.3% (348)
By Period
Roy
Thornton
P1
47.0%
59.3%
P2
47.2%
60.1%
P3
42.5%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
47.6%
Final 5 min
41.4%
58.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
45.6%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 18:06 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Derek Roy |