Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 44.5% vs Thornton 57.3% (-13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 71.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 75.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 76.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
Stepan
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Stepan
Thornton
Last 9: Stepan 2-7 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
2
Stepan
Thornton
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
4
Stepan
Thornton
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Thornton
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (942)
58.7% (722)
-15.2%
Power Play
48.1% (162)
58.5% (147)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (128)
51.2% (86)
-8.2%
On even strength, Thornton has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Stepan is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (812).
Stepan shoots right. Thornton is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (427).
Home / Away
Stepan
Thornton
Home
45.6% (629)
60.1% (496)
Away
42.5% (603)
55.8% (459)
By Period
Stepan
Thornton
P1
44.7%
60.4%
P2
43.7%
54.7%
P3
43.9%
58.2%
OT
40.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.1%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2015 | 3 | 16:03 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 2 | 07:47 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 2 | 00:28 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 1 | 15:08 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 1 | 11:34 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 1 | 10:37 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 1 | 06:59 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 1 | 04:05 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |