Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 55.6% vs Larsson 48.1% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 68.7%
Defensive zone
Thornton 53.7%
Neutral zone
Thornton 68.0%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Thornton
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Thornton
Larsson
Last 5: Thornton 3-2 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Larsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Larsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (836)
48.4% (258)
+6.7%
Power Play
60.8% (181)
28.6% (7)
+32.2%
Penalty Kill
56.1% (82)
40.0% (20)
+16.1%
On power play, Thornton has a +32.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Thornton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (585).
Thornton shoots left. Larsson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Thornton
Larsson
Home
60.4% (528)
46.8% (154)
Away
52.2% (571)
48.1% (131)
By Period
Thornton
Larsson
P1
58.1%
50.5%
P2
55.3%
48.5%
P3
55.0%
43.2%
Final 5 min
54.1%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 10:47 | Offensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 03:03 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 02:53 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 02:45 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 01:25 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |