Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 54.4%). Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Tavares 54.4% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 19-18 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 58.0%
Defensive zone
Thornton 53.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 54.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Thornton
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
18
(37 meetings)
19
18
Thornton
Tavares
Last 10: Thornton 7-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
7
Thornton
Tavares
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
5
3
Thornton
Tavares
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
8
8
Thornton
Tavares
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
54.0% (16,108)
-0.5%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
56.5% (4,283)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
50.6% (620)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Home / Away
Thornton
Tavares
Home
55.8% (4,271)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Thornton
Tavares
P1
55.0%
55.0%
P2
53.3%
54.1%
P3
54.4%
54.1%
OT
56.4%
55.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2018 | 1 | 10:40 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2018 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 14:17 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 19:36 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 02:14 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 25, 2016 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 25, 2016 | 3 | 15:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2 | 00:38 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 2 | 12:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 11:17 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 10:57 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 3 | 08:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 17, 2015 | 2 | 19:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2 | 00:17 | Neutral | John Tavares |