Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 52.9%). Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 51.7% vs Tavares 52.7% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 54.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 76.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Thornton
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Thornton
Tavares
Last 6: Thornton 5-1 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
0
Thornton
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Thornton
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (372)
52.9% (1,239)
-0.2%
Power Play
47.6% (63)
54.7% (309)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
50.0% (178)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Thornton is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (252).
Thornton shoots left. Tavares is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,124).
Home / Away
Thornton
Tavares
Home
51.2% (250)
55.0% (864)
Away
53.2% (190)
50.8% (862)
By Period
Thornton
Tavares
P1
56.1%
51.8%
P2
52.8%
51.4%
P3
47.4%
54.5%
OT
57.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.0%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 14:17 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 19:36 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 02:14 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |