Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Staal 55.3% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 31-26 in 57 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 67.3%
Defensive zone
Staal 63.2%
Neutral zone
Thornton 52.3%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Thornton
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
31
(57 meetings)
26
31
Thornton
Staal
Last 10: Thornton 3-7 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
8
8
Thornton
Staal
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
7
Thornton
Staal
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
14
16
Thornton
Staal
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
55.9% (14,620)
-2.4%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
62.7% (1,745)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
48.0% (2,896)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Home / Away
Thornton
Staal
Home
55.8% (4,271)
56.4% (9,663)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
54.3% (9,663)
By Period
Thornton
Staal
P1
55.0%
55.2%
P2
53.3%
55.9%
P3
54.4%
54.9%
OT
56.4%
56.2%
Final 5 min
53.7%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2018 | 2 | 18:59 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 2 | 18:31 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 5, 2018 | 1 | 07:46 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 7, 2017 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 7, 2017 | 3 | 05:45 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 7, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 7, 2017 | 2 | 16:10 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 7, 2017 | 2 | 02:40 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 7, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 15, 2016 | 3 | 15:09 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 15, 2016 | 3 | 12:52 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 15, 2016 | 3 | 06:03 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 15, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 15, 2016 | 1 | 09:17 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 15, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 19, 2016 | 3 | 16:52 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 19, 2016 | 3 | 11:03 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 19, 2016 | 3 | 10:38 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 19, 2016 | 3 | 08:26 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 19, 2016 | 2 | 00:08 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |