Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Thornton wins 59.3% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.3% vs Staal 55.7% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 65.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 53.1%
Neutral zone
Staal 59.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Thornton
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Thornton
Staal
Last 8: Thornton 3-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
2
Thornton
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Thornton
Staal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (722)
56.6% (769)
+2.1%
Power Play
58.5% (147)
60.2% (98)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
27.8% (18)
+23.4%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Thornton is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Thornton shoots left. Staal is 57.8% vs left-shot opponents (519).
Home / Away
Thornton
Staal
Home
60.1% (496)
57.8% (510)
Away
55.8% (459)
54.4% (375)
By Period
Thornton
Staal
P1
60.4%
55.1%
P2
54.7%
56.8%
P3
58.2%
57.1%
OT
61.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
55.5%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.0%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2015 | 3 | 19:05 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 2 | 06:04 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 1 | 06:31 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 1 | 05:23 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 7, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |