Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kempe shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Kempe 40.7% (+16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 95.4%
Defensive zone
Thornton 85.7%
Neutral zone
Thornton 91.9%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 92.4%
92.4%
7.6%
Thornton
Kempe
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Thornton
Kempe
Last 8: Thornton 7-1 Kempe
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
0
Thornton
Kempe
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Kempe
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
1
Thornton
Kempe
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Kempe
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
38.7% (380)
+14.8%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
33.3% (3)
+23.9%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
31.3% (16)
+25.4%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kempe shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Kempe is 37.1% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Thornton
Kempe
Home
55.8% (4,271)
40.1% (177)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
36.9% (222)
By Period
Thornton
Kempe
P1
55.0%
34.7%
P2
53.3%
40.4%
P3
54.4%
38.8%
OT
56.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Kempe
50.0%▲
38.5%
38.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 01:14 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 10:15 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 2 | 05:57 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 1 | 17:27 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 05:10 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |