Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 54.2%). Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (72% H2H, 25 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Duchene 54.1% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 36-17 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 56.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 53.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 54.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Thornton
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
17
(53 meetings)
36
17
Thornton
Duchene
Last 10: Thornton 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
7
3
Thornton
Duchene
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
11
7
Thornton
Duchene
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
18
7
Thornton
Duchene
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
53.9% (10,396)
-0.4%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
56.9% (1,665)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
49.1% (468)
+7.6%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Thornton
Duchene
Home
55.8% (4,271)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Thornton
Duchene
P1
55.0%
54.5%
P2
53.3%
54.5%
P3
54.4%
53.4%
OT
56.4%
56.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 03:56 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 3 | 07:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 3 | 01:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 2 | 18:50 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 2 | 09:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 14:15 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 1 | 07:43 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 5, 2018 | 2 | 13:27 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 3 | 13:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 3 | 06:32 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 2 | 01:12 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 24, 2016 | 1 | 03:47 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 08:54 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 08:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 04:12 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 00:44 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 1 | 06:53 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 05:03 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |