Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 57.5% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 55.5% vs Duchene 50.9% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 59.3%
Defensive zone
Thornton 82.8%
Neutral zone
Thornton 76.9%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 81.1%
81.1%
18.9%
Thornton
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Thornton
Duchene
Last 7: Thornton 5-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
1
Thornton
Duchene
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (704)
51.0% (357)
+4.8%
Power Play
56.7% (208)
53.6% (28)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (67)
50.0% (2)
+6.7%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Thornton is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (605).
Thornton shoots left. Duchene is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Thornton
Duchene
Home
59.0% (493)
51.0% (208)
Away
53.2% (500)
51.4% (183)
By Period
Thornton
Duchene
P1
55.3%
53.3%
P2
55.4%
53.4%
P3
57.1%
44.6%
OT
59.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.7%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2011 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 2 | 10:00 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 1 | 09:48 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 1 | 06:38 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |