Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Thornton wins 59.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.3% vs Duchene 52.0% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 83.5%
Defensive zone
Thornton 66.2%
Neutral zone
Thornton 81.7%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Thornton
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Thornton
Duchene
Last 10: Thornton 8-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
0
Thornton
Duchene
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Thornton
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
0
Thornton
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (722)
52.6% (1,081)
+6.1%
Power Play
58.5% (147)
49.6% (119)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
41.2% (17)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Thornton is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Thornton shoots left. Duchene is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (744).
Home / Away
Thornton
Duchene
Home
60.1% (496)
54.9% (625)
Away
55.8% (459)
49.3% (592)
By Period
Thornton
Duchene
P1
60.4%
52.7%
P2
54.7%
54.1%
P3
58.2%
49.5%
OT
61.5%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.5%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 08:54 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 08:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 04:12 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 2 | 00:44 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 1, 2015 | 1 | 06:53 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 05:03 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 02:45 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 1 | 10:14 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 1 | 09:23 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |