Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stajan on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Stajan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 52.6% vs Stajan 47.6% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 67.2%
Defensive zone
Stajan 86.3%
Neutral zone
Stajan 57.2%
Result
Matt Stajan favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Thornton
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Thornton
Stajan
Last 6: Thornton 2-4 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stajan
0
1
Thornton
Stajan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stajan
2
3
Thornton
Stajan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (577)
47.8% (678)
+4.0%
Power Play
57.7% (168)
33.3% (9)
+24.4%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
45.5% (101)
-8.0%
On power play, Thornton has a +24.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Thornton is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Thornton shoots left. Stajan is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (473).
Home / Away
Thornton
Stajan
Home
53.0% (379)
49.0% (392)
Away
52.9% (374)
45.7% (396)
By Period
Thornton
Stajan
P1
53.3%
47.9%
P2
50.7%
49.8%
P3
54.3%
43.4%
OT
62.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
53.0%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2016 | 1 | 05:19 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 3 | 11:39 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 2 | 03:11 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 1 | 02:47 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Nov 28, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |