Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Talbot shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Talbot 47.0% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 94.7%
Defensive zone
Thornton 65.3%
Neutral zone
Thornton 84.5%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 84.8%
84.8%
15.2%
Thornton
Talbot
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Thornton
Talbot
Last 8: Thornton 6-2 Talbot
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
0
Thornton
Talbot
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Talbot
0
2
Thornton
Talbot
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Talbot
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Talbot
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
48.3% (1,738)
+5.2%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
49.0% (51)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
42.3% (631)
+14.4%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Talbot shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Talbot is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,539).
Home / Away
Thornton
Talbot
Home
55.8% (4,271)
48.0% (1,219)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
45.8% (1,215)
By Period
Thornton
Talbot
P1
55.0%
48.7%
P2
53.3%
43.5%
P3
54.4%
48.6%
OT
56.4%
45.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Talbot
46.0%▲
43.5%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2014 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 11:32 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 28, 2012 | 1 | 03:37 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 18:29 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 05:28 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 14:58 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |