Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Lapierre shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.1% vs Lapierre 50.7% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 80.9%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 54.9%
Neutral zone
Thornton 61.9%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Thornton
Lapierre
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Thornton
Lapierre
Last 7: Thornton 5-2 Lapierre
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
0
Thornton
Lapierre
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Lapierre
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lapierre
0
1
Thornton
Lapierre
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Lapierre
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (922)
53.9% (280)
-1.1%
Power Play
56.1% (196)
30.0% (10)
+26.1%
Penalty Kill
62.0% (100)
34.9% (43)
+27.1%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lapierre shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (327).
Thornton shoots left. Lapierre is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Thornton
Lapierre
Home
54.9% (597)
50.3% (165)
Away
54.0% (643)
51.4% (175)
By Period
Thornton
Lapierre
P1
53.0%
53.9%
P2
51.2%
46.1%
P3
57.8%
52.7%
Final 5 min
59.0%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.4%
Lapierre
56.0%▬
55.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2011 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 2, 2011 | 3 | 06:39 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 9, 2011 | 3 | 02:53 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 9, 2011 | 2 | 13:32 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 9, 2011 | 2 | 10:56 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 9, 2011 | 2 | 06:59 | Neutral | Maxim Lapierre |
| Jan 9, 2011 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Maxim Lapierre |