Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 49.5% vs Backlund 47.6% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 55.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 53.4%
Neutral zone
Thornton 55.4%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Thornton
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Thornton
Backlund
Last 5: Thornton 4-1 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (583)
47.3% (630)
+1.6%
Power Play
52.5% (59)
48.5% (66)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
46.3% (82)
+12.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Thornton is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Thornton shoots left. Backlund is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (502).
Home / Away
Thornton
Backlund
Home
51.6% (341)
50.4% (347)
Away
47.0% (313)
44.8% (431)
By Period
Thornton
Backlund
P1
53.9%
46.7%
P2
46.9%
44.9%
P3
47.0%
49.8%
Final 5 min
52.0%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.4%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 10, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 4, 2020 | 2 | 00:59 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 13, 2019 | 2 | 05:39 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 13, 2019 | 1 | 01:18 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |