Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Richards shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.1% vs Richards 49.8% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 74.9%
Defensive zone
Thornton 52.1%
Neutral zone
Thornton 68.2%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 69.3%
69.3%
30.7%
Thornton
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
1
(10 meetings)
9
1
Thornton
Richards
Last 10: Thornton 9-1 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
1
Thornton
Richards
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Richards
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
5
0
Thornton
Richards
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (922)
47.9% (943)
+4.9%
Power Play
56.1% (196)
61.1% (157)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
62.0% (100)
52.9% (102)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Thornton is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (913).
Thornton shoots left. Richards is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (768).
Home / Away
Thornton
Richards
Home
54.9% (597)
50.9% (617)
Away
54.0% (643)
48.7% (599)
By Period
Thornton
Richards
P1
53.0%
45.4%
P2
51.2%
52.5%
P3
57.8%
51.3%
OT
72.7%
55.0%
Final 5 min
59.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.4%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2010 | 3 | 11:28 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2010 | 3 | 06:46 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2010 | 3 | 03:57 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2010 | 3 | 02:18 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2010 | 2 | 16:55 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2010 | 2 | 09:58 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2010 | 2 | 06:36 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2010 | 1 | 14:21 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 8, 2010 | 1 | 03:24 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Dec 8, 2010 | 1 | 00:29 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |