Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 28 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Richards shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Richards 50.5% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 47-24 in 71 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 78.7%
Defensive zone
Thornton 56.8%
Neutral zone
Thornton 77.3%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 71.6%
71.6%
28.4%
Thornton
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
47
-
24
(71 meetings)
47
24
Thornton
Richards
Last 10: Thornton 9-1 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
13
9
Thornton
Richards
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
13
8
Thornton
Richards
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
21
7
Thornton
Richards
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
50.0% (3,722)
+3.5%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
54.6% (445)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
51.4% (502)
+5.3%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Richards is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,122).
Home / Away
Thornton
Richards
Home
55.8% (4,271)
50.8% (2,363)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
50.3% (2,336)
By Period
Thornton
Richards
P1
55.0%
49.6%
P2
53.3%
52.3%
P3
54.4%
49.3%
OT
56.4%
58.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2016 | 3 | 02:51 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 2 | 07:57 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 2 | 03:12 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 2 | 12:34 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 2 | 09:45 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 1 | 06:24 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 1 | 00:44 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 3, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 27, 2014 | 1 | 11:53 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 2 | 17:05 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 2 | 16:54 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 2 | 16:40 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 1 | 16:46 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 1 | 12:46 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 1 | 05:18 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Oct 30, 2013 | 3 | 19:54 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |