Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Richards on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Richards shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.4% vs Richards 49.2% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Richards 50.6%
Defensive zone
Richards 53.1%
Neutral zone
Richards 53.7%
Result
Mike Richards favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Thornton
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Thornton
Richards
Last 7: Thornton 3-4 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Richards
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Richards
1
2
Thornton
Richards
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richards
1
2
Thornton
Richards
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (540)
50.0% (370)
+7.0%
Power Play
64.0% (111)
50.0% (30)
+14.0%
Penalty Kill
62.0% (50)
39.0% (41)
+23.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Thornton is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Thornton shoots left. Richards is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Thornton
Richards
Home
56.7% (353)
52.3% (214)
Away
60.3% (348)
45.8% (227)
By Period
Thornton
Richards
P1
59.3%
47.3%
P2
60.1%
53.2%
P3
57.1%
46.3%
OT
47.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
58.0%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.5%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2013 | 1 | 05:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 01:22 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 11:30 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 09:51 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 1 | 00:23 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |