Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 59.3% vs left-shot opponents — Richards shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.3% vs Richards 48.9% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 74.1%
Defensive zone
Thornton 82.4%
Neutral zone
Thornton 80.1%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 77.8%
77.8%
22.2%
Thornton
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Thornton
Richards
Last 6: Thornton 5-1 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Richards
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Richards
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Richards
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (722)
49.5% (529)
+9.2%
Power Play
58.5% (147)
44.4% (36)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
39.3% (28)
+11.9%
On power play, Thornton has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Thornton is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Thornton shoots left. Richards is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Home / Away
Thornton
Richards
Home
60.1% (496)
47.9% (292)
Away
55.8% (459)
49.5% (301)
By Period
Thornton
Richards
P1
60.4%
46.0%
P2
54.7%
52.0%
P3
58.2%
48.1%
OT
61.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.5%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.0%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2014 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 2 | 12:34 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 2 | 09:45 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 1 | 06:24 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 8, 2014 | 1 | 00:44 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |