Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 51.4%). Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 51.7% vs Koivu 51.3% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 68.4%
Defensive zone
Koivu 69.7%
Neutral zone
Thornton 55.7%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Thornton
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Thornton
Koivu
Last 7: Thornton 5-2 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Koivu
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Koivu
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Koivu
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (372)
50.7% (1,073)
+2.0%
Power Play
47.6% (63)
65.3% (216)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
43.4% (286)
+16.6%
On power play, Koivu has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Thornton is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (252).
Thornton shoots left. Koivu is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Thornton
Koivu
Home
51.2% (250)
50.9% (752)
Away
53.2% (190)
51.8% (823)
By Period
Thornton
Koivu
P1
56.1%
51.9%
P2
52.8%
50.3%
P3
47.4%
51.4%
OT
57.1%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.0%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2017 | 3 | 19:46 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2017 | 3 | 00:40 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2017 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2017 | 2 | 10:40 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2017 | 1 | 10:27 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 10, 2017 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 10, 2017 | 1 | 04:19 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |