Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Thompson 52.9% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 15-14 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 72.5%
Defensive zone
Thompson 76.9%
Neutral zone
Thompson 50.9%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Thornton
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
14
(29 meetings)
15
14
Thornton
Thompson
Last 10: Thornton 5-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
7
2
Thornton
Thompson
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
6
7
Thornton
Thompson
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
5
Thornton
Thompson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
54.1% (5,812)
-0.6%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
54.8% (135)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
47.9% (1,381)
+8.8%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Home / Away
Thornton
Thompson
Home
55.8% (4,271)
54.8% (3,626)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
51.1% (3,717)
By Period
Thornton
Thompson
P1
55.0%
53.2%
P2
53.3%
52.9%
P3
54.4%
52.8%
OT
56.4%
47.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 05:18 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 05:06 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 13:35 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 09:00 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 02:38 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 1 | 14:07 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 3 | 07:16 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 00:24 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 3 | 13:52 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 01:41 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 01:11 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 9, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 2, 2016 | 3 | 14:37 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 29, 2015 | 1 | 12:41 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 1 | 03:02 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 22, 2014 | 2 | 10:45 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 3 | 10:18 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |