Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Dowd 50.7% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 78.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 67.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 60.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Thornton
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Thornton
Dowd
Last 10: Thornton 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
1
Thornton
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
5
Thornton
Dowd
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
3
Thornton
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
52.4% (6,009)
+1.1%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
56.1% (164)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
44.1% (1,635)
+12.6%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Thornton shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Thornton
Dowd
Home
55.8% (4,271)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Thornton
Dowd
P1
55.0%
51.7%
P2
53.3%
50.4%
P3
54.4%
50.3%
OT
56.4%
45.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 11:40 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2020 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 17:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 15:38 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 09:17 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 02:09 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 21, 2017 | 2 | 00:27 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 3 | 11:17 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 3 | 04:23 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 2 | 09:52 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 3 | 17:08 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 30, 2016 | 2 | 18:28 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |