Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Thornton wins 38.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 46.2% vs Dowd 53.3% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 84.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 79.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 58.7%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Thornton
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Thornton
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (161)
55.4% (771)
-11.9%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
57.1% (7)
-7.1%
On even strength, Dowd has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Thornton is 38.8% vs right-shot opponents (67).
Thornton shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Thornton
Dowd
Home
41.5% (106)
58.2% (462)
Away
47.8% (69)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Thornton
Dowd
P1
50.8%
55.6%
P2
41.0%
50.5%
P3
40.0%
53.9%
Final 5 min
43.8%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
44.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 11:40 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |