Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Paul 52.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 66.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 63.3%
Neutral zone
Thornton 51.6%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Thornton
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Thornton
Paul
Last 9: Thornton 5-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
0
Thornton
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Thornton
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Thornton
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
52.5% (3,796)
+1.0%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
56.5% (480)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
46.7% (574)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Thornton
Paul
Home
55.8% (4,271)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Thornton
Paul
P1
55.0%
53.9%
P2
53.3%
51.0%
P3
54.4%
52.0%
OT
56.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 17:13 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 14:46 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 3 | 02:37 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 2 | 07:10 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |