Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 49.5% vs Paul 51.0% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 57.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 50.4%
Neutral zone
Thornton 54.1%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Thornton
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Thornton
Paul
Last 5: Thornton 2-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Thornton
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (583)
53.5% (312)
-4.6%
Power Play
52.5% (59)
53.8% (26)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
29.4% (34)
+28.9%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +28.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Thornton is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Thornton shoots left. Paul is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Home / Away
Thornton
Paul
Home
51.6% (341)
45.8% (153)
Away
47.0% (313)
55.0% (220)
By Period
Thornton
Paul
P1
53.9%
55.9%
P2
46.9%
48.9%
P3
47.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2020 | 3 | 02:37 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 2 | 07:10 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |