Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.1% vs Gaustad 59.0% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 84.8%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 51.1%
Neutral zone
Thornton 64.2%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Thornton
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Thornton
Gaustad
Last 8: Thornton 2-6 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Gaustad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
2
Thornton
Gaustad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
3
Thornton
Gaustad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (922)
58.6% (790)
-5.8%
Power Play
56.1% (196)
66.7% (93)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
62.0% (100)
61.0% (269)
+1.0%
On power play, Gaustad has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Thornton is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (913).
Thornton shoots left. Gaustad is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Thornton
Gaustad
Home
54.9% (597)
60.6% (554)
Away
54.0% (643)
58.9% (604)
By Period
Thornton
Gaustad
P1
53.0%
61.3%
P2
51.2%
55.5%
P3
57.8%
62.3%
OT
72.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
59.0%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.4%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2011 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 6, 2011 | 1 | 02:14 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 9, 2010 | 3 | 09:26 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 9, 2010 | 3 | 06:49 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 9, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 9, 2010 | 2 | 13:51 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 9, 2010 | 2 | 12:13 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 9, 2010 | 1 | 12:15 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |