Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 25 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 34-21 in 55 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 92.9%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 69.5%
Neutral zone
Thornton 56.9%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Thornton
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
34
(55 meetings)
21
34
Thornton
Gaustad
Last 10: Thornton 6-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
15
4
Thornton
Gaustad
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
3
22
Thornton
Gaustad
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
3
8
Thornton
Gaustad
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
58.2% (4,334)
-4.7%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
65.4% (188)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
54.8% (1,290)
+1.9%
On power play, Gaustad has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Home / Away
Thornton
Gaustad
Home
55.8% (4,271)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Thornton
Gaustad
P1
55.0%
58.2%
P2
53.3%
56.4%
P3
54.4%
58.3%
OT
56.4%
66.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2016 | OT | 00:50 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 3 | 18:21 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 2 | 16:53 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 2 | 16:32 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 2 | 11:15 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 1 | 06:27 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 2 | 02:14 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 2 | 00:53 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 1 | 13:57 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 3 | 01:46 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 1 | 17:10 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 18:38 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 12:57 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 04:05 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |