Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Thornton wins 57.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.4% vs Gaustad 57.9% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 77.7%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 76.3%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 55.6%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Thornton
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Thornton
Gaustad
Last 10: Thornton 6-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
5
2
Thornton
Gaustad
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
4
Thornton
Gaustad
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (540)
59.8% (353)
-2.8%
Power Play
64.0% (111)
66.7% (15)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
62.0% (50)
58.0% (81)
+4.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Thornton is 57.7% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Thornton shoots left. Gaustad is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
Thornton
Gaustad
Home
56.7% (353)
62.1% (195)
Away
60.3% (348)
57.9% (254)
By Period
Thornton
Gaustad
P1
59.3%
59.4%
P2
60.1%
58.1%
P3
57.1%
61.3%
OT
47.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
58.0%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.5%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2013 | 3 | 17:24 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 2, 2013 | 2 | 07:48 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 2, 2013 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 3 | 19:55 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 3 | 19:49 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 12, 2013 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 2, 2013 | OT | 04:58 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 2, 2013 | OT | 00:36 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 2, 2013 | OT | 00:31 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 3 | 02:40 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 1 | 00:59 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |