Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 14 meetings). Thornton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 55.6% vs Gaustad 57.4% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 82.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 62.3%
Neutral zone
Thornton 56.7%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Thornton
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
14
(17 meetings)
3
14
Thornton
Gaustad
Last 10: Thornton 3-7 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Gaustad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
13
Thornton
Gaustad
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
1
Thornton
Gaustad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (836)
59.3% (913)
-4.2%
Power Play
60.8% (181)
72.2% (18)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
56.1% (82)
52.8% (269)
+3.3%
On power play, Gaustad has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Thornton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (585).
Thornton shoots left. Gaustad is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Thornton
Gaustad
Home
60.4% (528)
58.6% (604)
Away
52.2% (571)
57.4% (596)
By Period
Thornton
Gaustad
P1
58.1%
61.5%
P2
55.3%
55.7%
P3
55.0%
56.6%
OT
55.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2014 | 3 | 01:46 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 1 | 17:10 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 18:38 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 12:57 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 04:05 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 2 | 06:11 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 1 | 18:11 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 1 | 14:48 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 1 | 11:49 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 3 | 15:31 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 3 | 01:58 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 2 | 09:51 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |