Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Thornton wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 52.6% vs Gaustad 54.7% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 85.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 93.8%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 62.5%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Thornton
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Thornton
Gaustad
Last 6: Thornton 4-2 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
1
Thornton
Gaustad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
1
Thornton
Gaustad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Gaustad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (577)
56.2% (603)
-4.4%
Power Play
57.7% (168)
71.4% (21)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
49.3% (148)
-11.8%
On power play, Gaustad has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Thornton is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Thornton shoots left. Gaustad is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Home / Away
Thornton
Gaustad
Home
53.0% (379)
55.5% (366)
Away
52.9% (374)
55.2% (406)
By Period
Thornton
Gaustad
P1
53.3%
55.0%
P2
50.7%
56.9%
P3
54.3%
53.7%
OT
62.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
53.0%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2016 | OT | 00:50 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 2, 2016 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 3 | 18:21 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 2 | 16:53 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 2 | 16:32 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |