Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 55.1%). Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 44 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Stastny 55.1% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 70-64 in 134 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 59.0%
Defensive zone
Stastny 64.2%
Neutral zone
Stastny 59.9%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
Thornton
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
70
-
64
(134 meetings)
70
64
Thornton
Stastny
Last 10: Thornton 5-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
26
18
Thornton
Stastny
44 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
19
22
Thornton
Stastny
41 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
25
24
Thornton
Stastny
49 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
54.6% (10,616)
-1.1%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
59.1% (1,994)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
52.9% (1,119)
+3.8%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
Thornton
Stastny
Home
55.8% (4,271)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Thornton
Stastny
P1
55.0%
56.3%
P2
53.3%
55.4%
P3
54.4%
53.5%
OT
56.4%
62.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2021 | 1 | 04:37 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 1 | 01:11 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 2, 2019 | 3 | 15:23 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 2, 2019 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 18, 2019 | 1 | 10:13 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 12:23 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 08:45 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 1 | 15:05 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 07:37 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 04:47 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 2 | 17:14 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 06:02 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 2 | 11:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 3 | 07:58 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 13:29 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |