Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.1% vs 55.4%). Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Thornton wins 57.5% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 55.5% vs Stastny 55.1% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 55.1%
Defensive zone
Stastny 54.3%
Neutral zone
Stastny 53.2%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Thornton
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Thornton
Stastny
Last 10: Thornton 7-3 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Stastny
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
6
2
Thornton
Stastny
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Thornton
Stastny
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (704)
55.0% (1,136)
+0.8%
Power Play
56.7% (208)
57.5% (200)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (67)
53.1% (64)
+3.6%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Thornton is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (605).
Thornton shoots left. Stastny is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Home / Away
Thornton
Stastny
Home
59.0% (493)
58.5% (744)
Away
53.2% (500)
52.1% (680)
By Period
Thornton
Stastny
P1
55.3%
57.9%
P2
55.4%
54.9%
P3
57.1%
53.0%
OT
59.3%
72.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2012 | 3 | 15:53 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 3 | 13:31 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 3 | 11:19 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 2 | 09:57 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 1 | 15:36 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 1 | 10:45 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 1 | 02:30 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 3 | 11:51 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 2 | 09:52 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 2 | 10:26 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |