Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (76% H2H, 21 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 39-28 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 64.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 79.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 69.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 70.6%
29.4%
70.6%
Thornton
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
28
(67 meetings)
39
28
Thornton
O'Reilly
Last 10: Thornton 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
12
13
Thornton
O'Reilly
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
11
10
Thornton
O'Reilly
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
16
5
Thornton
O'Reilly
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
56.2% (15,260)
-2.7%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
58.8% (3,445)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
51.4% (2,811)
+5.3%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Thornton
O'Reilly
Home
55.8% (4,271)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Thornton
O'Reilly
P1
55.0%
55.6%
P2
53.3%
57.0%
P3
54.4%
55.1%
OT
56.4%
62.2%
Final 5 min
53.7%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 10:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 3 | 03:42 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 3 | 00:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 9, 2018 | 1 | 07:53 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 9, 2018 | 1 | 07:49 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 1 | 02:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 17:29 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 3 | 15:05 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 3 | 14:57 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 1 | 06:34 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 7, 2017 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |