Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Thornton wins 57.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 55.5% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 58.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.7%
Neutral zone
Thornton 56.1%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Thornton
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Thornton
O'Reilly
Last 10: Thornton 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Thornton
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
1
Thornton
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
4
1
Thornton
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (704)
52.5% (1,177)
+3.3%
Power Play
56.7% (208)
54.6% (130)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (67)
52.8% (108)
+3.9%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Thornton is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (605).
Thornton shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,027).
Home / Away
Thornton
O'Reilly
Home
59.0% (493)
54.9% (669)
Away
53.2% (500)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Thornton
O'Reilly
P1
55.3%
52.4%
P2
55.4%
56.1%
P3
57.1%
49.8%
OT
59.3%
57.7%
Final 5 min
54.7%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2012 | 3 | 02:14 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 2 | 01:27 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 1 | 05:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 3 | 06:31 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 3 | 04:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 3 | 01:55 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 2 | 04:35 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 3 | 05:25 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 2 | 16:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 2 | 07:43 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |