Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 55.6% vs O'Reilly 51.4% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 50.7%
Defensive zone
Thornton 61.1%
Neutral zone
Thornton 55.2%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Thornton
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Thornton
O'Reilly
Last 9: Thornton 5-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Thornton
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
0
Thornton
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (836)
51.5% (194)
+3.6%
Power Play
60.8% (181)
52.3% (107)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
56.1% (82)
51.4% (70)
+4.7%
On power play, Thornton has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Thornton is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (585).
Thornton shoots left. O'Reilly is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Thornton
O'Reilly
Home
60.4% (528)
50.3% (185)
Away
52.2% (571)
53.2% (186)
By Period
Thornton
O'Reilly
P1
58.1%
51.0%
P2
55.3%
48.9%
P3
55.0%
53.3%
OT
55.2%
68.8%
Final 5 min
54.1%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2014 | 3 | 13:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 3 | 13:40 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 3 | 10:59 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 3 | 00:41 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 14:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 13:58 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 03:01 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |