Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 51.7% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 90.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 69.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 75.1%
24.9%
75.1%
Thornton
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Thornton
O'Reilly
Last 6: Thornton 4-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Thornton
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
0
Thornton
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (372)
60.3% (1,517)
-7.6%
Power Play
47.6% (63)
61.5% (387)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
55.0% (220)
+5.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Thornton is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (252).
Thornton shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,411).
Home / Away
Thornton
O'Reilly
Home
51.2% (250)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
53.2% (190)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Thornton
O'Reilly
P1
56.1%
56.8%
P2
52.8%
64.6%
P3
47.4%
58.5%
OT
57.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2017 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2017 | 1 | 02:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 19:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 17:29 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |