Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Smyth on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Smyth shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Smyth 45.8% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 61.0%
Defensive zone
Thornton 67.3%
Neutral zone
Thornton 67.9%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Thornton
Smyth
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Thornton
Smyth
Last 10: Thornton 6-4 Smyth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smyth
0
4
Thornton
Smyth
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
1
Thornton
Smyth
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
0
Thornton
Smyth
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Smyth
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
45.2% (456)
+8.3%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
51.8% (164)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
23.3% (43)
+33.4%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +33.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smyth shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Smyth is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (434).
Home / Away
Thornton
Smyth
Home
55.8% (4,271)
49.7% (340)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
40.5% (326)
By Period
Thornton
Smyth
P1
55.0%
48.3%
P2
53.3%
41.7%
P3
54.4%
46.5%
OT
56.4%
25.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Smyth
50.0%▬
50.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2014 | 1 | 09:06 | Defensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 1 | 08:54 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 29, 2014 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 00:53 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 00:43 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 1 | 03:33 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 1 | 10:40 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 3 | 00:17 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |