Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 49.5% vs Aho 46.4% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 52.5%
Defensive zone
Thornton 70.2%
Neutral zone
Thornton 71.9%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Thornton
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Thornton
Aho
Last 7: Thornton 5-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Thornton
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
3
0
Thornton
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (583)
46.2% (744)
+2.7%
Power Play
52.5% (59)
44.6% (112)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
45.5% (33)
+12.8%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Thornton is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Thornton shoots left. Aho is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Thornton
Aho
Home
51.6% (341)
46.7% (445)
Away
47.0% (313)
45.3% (444)
By Period
Thornton
Aho
P1
53.9%
48.1%
P2
46.9%
44.9%
P3
47.0%
45.8%
Final 5 min
52.0%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 18:38 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 3 | 15:41 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 1 | 17:35 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 1 | 17:19 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2019 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |