Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 46.2% vs Aho 52.2% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 51.5%
Defensive zone
Thornton 59.1%
Neutral zone
Thornton 52.4%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Thornton
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Thornton
Aho
Last 5: Thornton 2-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
3
Thornton
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (161)
51.6% (819)
-8.1%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
58.4% (173)
-8.4%
On power play, Aho has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Thornton is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (108).
Thornton shoots left. Aho is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Thornton
Aho
Home
41.5% (106)
53.9% (568)
Away
47.8% (69)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Thornton
Aho
P1
50.8%
55.4%
P2
41.0%
51.2%
P3
40.0%
50.9%
Final 5 min
43.8%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
44.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 04:49 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 1 | 01:36 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |