Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 16 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Horcoff 49.6% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 36-27 in 63 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 81.2%
Defensive zone
Thornton 53.2%
Neutral zone
Thornton 76.8%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
Thornton
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
27
(63 meetings)
36
27
Thornton
Horcoff
Last 10: Thornton 7-3 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
9
6
Thornton
Horcoff
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
10
6
Thornton
Horcoff
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
17
15
Thornton
Horcoff
32 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
50.6% (3,133)
+2.9%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
51.4% (555)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
43.0% (567)
+13.7%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Horcoff is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,000).
Home / Away
Thornton
Horcoff
Home
55.8% (4,271)
51.1% (2,199)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
48.0% (2,104)
By Period
Thornton
Horcoff
P1
55.0%
48.2%
P2
53.3%
49.5%
P3
54.4%
50.9%
OT
56.4%
51.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2015 | 3 | 19:16 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 3 | 00:07 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 2 | 17:21 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 3 | 05:56 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 19, 2015 | 1 | 11:59 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 3 | 01:52 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | OT | 04:15 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | OT | 02:21 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | OT | 00:15 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 15:31 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 12:26 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 3 | 04:07 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 12:46 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 20, 2013 | 1 | 17:44 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |