Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Dries shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 54.3% vs Dries 49.6% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 78.6%
Defensive zone
Thornton 61.2%
Neutral zone
Thornton 74.2%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Thornton
Dries
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Thornton
Dries
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Dries
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Dries
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Dries
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,640)
48.8% (527)
+4.7%
Power Play
57.2% (1,387)
52.9% (68)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (427)
54.3% (35)
+2.4%
On even strength, Thornton has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dries shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Thornton shoots left. Dries is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (412).
Home / Away
Thornton
Dries
Home
55.8% (4,271)
52.8% (354)
Away
52.8% (4,219)
45.3% (276)
By Period
Thornton
Dries
P1
55.0%
47.1%
P2
53.3%
52.1%
P3
54.4%
48.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Dries
46.0%▼
50.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2022 | 3 | 07:22 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 10:22 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 1 | 11:15 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 1 | 16:22 | Defensive | Sheldon Dries |